Positive Outlook for Grain Prices
28 January 2004
Higher world populations and changes in dietary patterns especially in many emerging economies is leading to a steady increase in food demand which will impact positively on world grain prices, according to a leading international analyst
Dr Andree Defois from Strategy Grains in France told the Teagasc National Tillage Conference that severe yield reductions in the main exporting countries led to an increase in world and Irish grain prices, particularly last year. She said that world prices, having bottomed out at the turn of the century, are projected to display a slow and moderate recovery over the medium term as supply adjusts and global demand strengthens.
“World factors, such as the 3 % reduction in the US wheat area in 2004 and the fact that Chinese grain stocks are currently being significantly reduced, point to tight grain stocks which strengthen wheat prices. However grain production in the former Soviet Union is set to recover somewhat in 2004.”
“However, while the coming price trend is on the upside compared to the average of the 1990s, it does not mean that prices will remain as high as they are at present,” she said.
Disease Resistance
The conference was also given details of a nationwide Teagasc survey of cereal disease resistance to new fungicides, called strobilurins. Dr Eugene O’Sullivan of the Teagasc Tillage Research Centre at Oak Park stated that over 95% of crops sampled last year showed resistance of the wheat disease, Septoria, to the new fungicides. Resistance levels ranged from 9% to 84%, with an average of 48%. The Teagasc diagnosis was carried out using the latest biotechnology techniques which have recently been installed in Oak Park.
Septoria, which is more commonly known as ‘leaf blotch’, is a serious disease of wheat in Ireland with the potential to cause massive reductions in yield. The emergence of resistance to what were regarded as the ‘dream’ chemicals is now a major challenge for researchers and the international plant protection industry.
Dr Brendan Dunne of Teagasc Oak Park said that alternative control procedures using the older fungicides must be used this season in order to control this serious disease. In addition, very early sown crops must be treated differently and anti-resistance strategies used so that the current fungicides can be safeguarded.
“A weakening in the effectiveness of these fungicides against the major diseases would have serious implications for cereal growing in Ireland,” he warned.
Teagasc Advisory Specialist, Michael Hennessy, told the conference that machinery costs have a major bearing on profitability of tillage farming. An analysis of Teagasc monitor farms in 2003 showed a variation of over €300/hectare (€120/acre) in machinery costs. Machinery costs ranged from a low of €109/hectare to €415/hectare.
