Changes in international, EU and Irish climate change policy

The Paris Agreement in 2015 sets out a global framework to avoid the impact of climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. The following EU policy developments have occurred:

• In December 2020, EU leaders agreed to reduce EU GHG emissions by at least 55% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2030 as part of the European Green Deal.
• In June 2021, the EU Council adopted the European climate law legally obliging EU countries to reach both the 2030 and 2050 climate goals.
• In 2023 Ireland’s commitment under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation increased from a 30% to 42% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, relative to 2005 levels.
• The EU Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation was revised in 2023 for the period up to 2030, with a separate land-based net carbon removals target of 310 million tonnes of CO₂eq by 2030. This EU-wide target is to be implemented through binding national targets for the LULUCF sector.

 In line with EU ambition, Ireland has committed to achieving the following:

• A reduction of 51% in overall GHG emissions from 2021 to 2030 based on 2018 levels and achieving Climate Neutrality no later than 2050. These legally binding objectives are set out in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2021.
• In 2022, a 25% reduction in GHG emission relative to 2018 levels was set for the Irish agriculture sector by 2030.
• The finalisation of the sectoral emissions ceiling for the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector was deferred for 18 months (Q4 2023) to allow for the completion of the Land-Use Strategy.

What’s different compared to the last MACC?

There are a number of key differences to the previous MACC. These include:

• The FAPRI Ireland model has been used to update the animal number projections to 2030 (Table 1). This projects a small decline in the overall bovine herd size. These projections are the same as those provided by Teagasc for the 2023 EPA projections of GHG inventories.
• The agricultural efficiency measures (which reduce the carbon footprint but only reduce absolute emissions if the volume of farm output is not increasing) have been separated from those measures that will reduce the absolute emissions.
• New measures have been added, including age at finishing, feed additives, diversification etc. The contribution of some existing measures have been adjusted based on new science (particularly dairy EBI), which has emerged over the last five years and coupled it with forthcoming science.
• Two adoption pathway rates for GHG mitigation measures have been established along with three possible scenarios for how animal numbers might evolve.

Projected GHG emissions without any abatement

• The 2030 GHG emissions are estimated to be 21.9 MtCO₂eq yr¹ for Scenario 1, 21.1 MtCO₂eq yr¹ for Scenario 2 and 22.8 MtCO₂eq yr¹ for Scenario 3.

How have potential reductions been calculated?

In order to assess the potential contribution of the Agriculture (both mitigation and efficiency), Land- Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (AFOLU) and (Bio)Energy sectors, four distinctive MACCs were developed:

1. Agricultural Mitigation MACC – The reduction potential associated with measures that reduce the total GHG emissions associated with agriculture.
2. Agricultural Efficiency MACC – The reduction potential associated with measures that reduce the carbon footprint of agricultural produce.
3. Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) MACC – The reduction potential associated with measures that reduce emissions and enhance sinks associated with Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF).
4. (Bio)Energy MACC – The fossil fuel CO₂eq offsetting potential associated with bioenergy or energy-saving measures in the Agriculture and LULUCF sectors.

In contrast to previous MACC analyses, linear rate of uptake for all measures was not assumed. The rate of uptake was tailored for individual measures. Measures already being adopted, e.g. LESS, were assumed to be taken up more rapidly, whilst those still under development, e.g. animal feed additives, were assumed to start slowly and have accelerated rates of uptake in later years.

Table 2. The carbon budget targets in 2030 plus the estimated agricultural GHG emissions in 2030 using three animal number scenarios and two adoption pathways. Note the 2018 baseline for agriculture used was 23* MtCO₂eq yr¹

*These values do not include the inventory changes in sheep methane emissions that will be included in the EPA National Inventory Report 2023

Mitigation potentials

Agriculture MACC – absolute greenhouse gas reduction measures

Over the entire period (2021-2030), the cumulative emissions reductions potential for Agriculture ranges from 12.7 million tonnes CO₂eq to 21.7 million tonnes CO₂eq

• Using S1 level of activity, GHG abatement measures have the potential to reduce emissions associated with agriculture by between 2,820 ktCO₂eq yr¹ (Pathway 1) and 4,857 ktCO₂eq yr¹ (Pathway 2) by 2030 (Fig. 1 and 2 and Table 3).
• Over the ENTIRE period (2021- 2030), the cumulative emissions reductions potential for Agriculture ranges from 12.7 million tonnes CO2eq for S2 level of activity in combination with P1 level of GHG abatement to 21.7 million tonnes CO2eq for S3 level of activity in combination with P2 level of GHG abatement when each year is summed together.
• The quantum of abatement over the entire commitment period depends on how quickly a measure is taken up (uptake rate) and the number of farmers/land-owners that adopt a measure (adoption rate).
• Using P1 level of uptake, the top five abatement measures are reduced age of finishing, altering fertiliser formulation, feed additives, dairy EBI, and the adoption of clover/MSS which by 2030, would account for 62% of total mitigation potential.
• Uptake ambition of an individual measure is NOT mutually exclusive to a pathway.

In Pathway 2, measures have the potential to reduce emissions associated with agriculture by 4,857 ktCO₂eq yr¹

Agricultural MACC – greenhouse gas efficiency measures

• Measures have the potential to reduce emissions associated with C footprint by between 1,524 ktCO₂eq yr¹ (Pathway 1) and 1,954 ktCO₂eq yr¹ (Pathway 2) by 2030 (Fig. 3 and Table 4).
• While these measures have a direct impact on the Carbon footprint or emissions intensity of agricultural produce, they only indirectly affect total emissions.
• Animal health and improved beef maternal/ terminal index contribute to reducing the finishing age of beef cattle.
• In order for increased efficiency measures to deliver reductions in ‘absolute’ GHG emissions, agricultural output would have to be stable over the period to 2030.

Figure 1: Agricultural MACC for the expected animal numbers (Scenario 1) with a similar level of measure adoption to that previously used (Pathway 1) for methane, nitrous oxide and both gases. The dashed line indicates a Carbon Price of €100 per tonne CO₂eq.

Figure 2: Agricultural MACC for the expected animal numbers (Scenario 1) with a high level of measure adoption (Pathway 2) for methane, nitrous oxide and both gases. The dashed line indicates a Carbon Price of €100 per tonne CO2eq.

Figure 3: Agricultural Efficiency MACC for the expected animal numbers (Scenario 1) with a high level of measure adoption (Pathway 2).