How much mitigation can be achieved?

• By 2030, the maximum annual rate of mitigation will range from 2,367 ktCO₂eq yr¹ under Pathway 1 to 4,110 ktCO₂eq yr¹ under Pathway 2 (Fig. 4 and Table 5). Much of this mitigation will simply offset the projected increase in emissions over the 2021-2030 period.
• Under the very ambitious Pathway 2, it is possible to achieve the EU LULUCF reduction target of 13.1%.
• Higher levels of emissions reduction from the sector will be difficult to achieve unless mitigation measures (such as grassland/cropland management) can be incorporated into the LULUCF inventories. A considerable body of scientific work is underway to both refine the land-use and land management factors in the inventory and to collate the activity data required to measure, verify and report emissions reduction or increased carbon sequestration.

The cumulative mitigation between 2021 and 2030 is projected to be between 12.8 million tonnes CO₂eq (Pathway 1) and 21.6 million tonnes CO₂eq (Pathway 2).

Contribution of forestry

• By 2030 afforestation rates of 8,000 ha yr¹ could deliver 287 ktCO₂eq yr¹; achieving afforestation rates of 8,000 ha yr¹ will be a vital measure for achieving 2050 climate neutrality.
• Forest management (by incentivising extension of the age of rotation on between 21% and
• 31% of the current forest stock) could reduce emissions in 2030 by 394 and 890 ktCO₂eq yr¹ for Pathways 1 (21% forest area) and Pathway 2 (31% forest area), respectively. This measure could increase timber yields, but it could reduce feedstock for sawmills and it may undermine confidence amongst forest owners in terms of their ability to harvest at a time of their choosing.
• Preventing deforestation on 752 ha yr1 will reduce sectoral emissions by 140 ktCO₂eq yr¹ in 2030.

Contribution of grasslands and tillage

The achievement of the Government’s 5.7TWh of biomethane by 2030 would deliver 1,518 ktCO₂eq yr¹ and cumulatively over the 2021 to 2030 period could displace 4.1 million tonnes CO₂eq.

• Altered water-table management on between 40,000ha and 80,000ha of peat-based grassland would reduce emissions by between 646 kt ktCO₂eq yr¹ and 1,616 ktCO₂eq yr¹ under Pathways 1 and 2 respectively in 2030. These targets may need to be revisited in light of the new (lower) estimates of peat grassland that is field drained.
• Optimal management of grassland on mineral soils could sequester an extra 358 ktCO₂eq yr¹ under Pathways 1 and 556 ktCO₂eq yr¹ under Pathway 2 in 2030.
• Planting new hedgerows and improved management of existing hedgerows could reduce emissions by 229 and 379 ktCO₂eq yr¹ in 2030 respectively under Pathways 1 and 2.
• On tillage land, straw incorporation and cover crops could increase sequestration by 125 and 182 ktCO₂eq yr¹ in 2030 respectively under Pathways 1 and 2.

Bioenergy contribution

Bioenergy contributes to national decarbonisation. However, the majority of emissions reductions achieved will accrue to the energy-consuming sectors (power generation, transport, residential/ commercial power consumption). The majority of fossil fuel displacement is projected to be due to the use of wood biomass (as wood thinnings and residues). However, the achievement of the Government’s 5.7TWh of biomethane by 2030 would also deliver 1,518 ktCO₂eq yr¹ and cumulatively over the 2021 to 2030 period could displace 4.1 million tonnes CO₂eq (Fig. 5). In total, bioenergy could contribute to over 10% of the combined energy sector’s targets. The marginal cost of biomethane is highly dependent on both feedstock cost and the unit price of gas.

Further Information

Read more about the Signpost programme at www.teagasc.ie/signpost

Visit the decision support and planning tool Agnav at www.agnav.ie

Contribution of KT/Advisory and a whole-of-sector effort

The amount of GHG emissions reduction achieved through the adoption of the identified mitigation measures is dependent on both the rate and extent of adoption of the various measures by farmers. A targeted programme to enable this is the Teagasc-led, whole of industry Signpost Programme, www.teagasc.ie/signpost. Launched since the publication of the previous MACC in 2018, this major knowledge transfer initiative aims to lead climate action by all Irish farmers. This initiative includes:

1. Signpost Farms: a network of over 120 demonstration farmers who can be amongst the first to adopt climate mitigation technologies, and can share their experiences with other farmers;
2. Signpost Advisory Programme: a targeted advisory service which will be available to all farmers to provide enhanced advisory and training support to enable farmers to identify, select and implement climate and sustainability actions for their farms.

The involvement and support of industry in the Signpost Programme is a critical element in its success, and sustainability bonus schemes or similar initiatives introduced by industry can give an impetus to farmer adoption of mitigation measures.

In another important development, Teagasc, Bord Bia and ICBF, with the support of the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, are developing a digital platform (www.agnav.ie), to provide a science-led, decision support and planning tool to farmers to enable climate action. AgNav will be a key enabling tool for advisors in the delivery of the Signpost Advisory Programme. The AgNav platform will allow farmers to quantify their farm’s gaseous emissions (both GHG and ammonia, referred to as “Know My Number”) while then facilitating the creation of a farm specific, action list (referred to as “Make My Plan”). The digital platform will provide individual farmers with farm specific indicators of their current status (baseline or starting point) and progress made over time in the uptake of mitigation measures and reductions in emissions.

Cumulative greenhouse gas mitigations from 2021 to 2030 and maximum annual mitigation in 2030

Table 3. Absolute Agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation measures based on Scenario 1 for the cumulative period 2021 to 2030 and maximum annual mitigation in 2030 for both Pathway 1 and Pathway 2

Table 4. Agricultural efficiency greenhouse gas mitigation measures based on Scenario 1 for the cumulative period 2021 to 2030 and maximum annual mitigation in 2030 for both Pathway 1 and Pathway 2

Table 5. Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry greenhouse gas mitigation measures for the cumulative period 2021 to 2030 and maximum annual mitigation in 2030 for both Pathway 1 and Pathway 2

Table 6. Energy mitigation greenhouse gas measures for the cumulative period 2021 to 2030 and maximum annual mitigation in 2030 for both Pathway 1 and Pathway 2