Enhance Adaptation
Climate change will increasingly impact on agricultural production. Current projections for Irish climate for the middle of the present century suggest that Winters will be significantly warmer than at present and Summers will also be warmer with the greatest warming away from the coasts. In terms of rainfall, Winter, Spring and Autumn are likely to be wetter in most parts, while summers are likely to be drier
Wet spring and autumn periods can result in poor trafficability impacting on grazing of grasslands, sowing and harvesting of crops. Droughts in summer due to reduced rainfall can reduce the yield of grassland and crops leading to feed shortages for animals and increasing the potential for pest and diseases outbreaks.
There is a growing need to adapt our agricultural systems to increase the resilience of the Irish agriculture and food sector to the impact of climate change. Such adaptations could include earlier planting and harvesting dates and capital investment in irrigation equipment. We will also need to consider adaptation of our systems in the light of the impact of climate change on global food production and security. Farmers will also need to be aware of opportunities which arise as a result of adverse changes in agriculture elsewhere in the EU which may create new market opportunities.
Priority Research Questions
- How will climate change impact the sustainability of Irish crop and grass-based production systems?
- What novel or existing systems and management practices are more resilient to the effects of predicted climate change?
- Will individual or successional weather events lead to system tipping points and if so, how are Irish agricultural systems prepared?
- What traits and markers can be identified for crops, grass, clover and mixed species forages for increased climate, disease and pest resistance?
- How will the prevalence and characteristics of pests and disease change with climate change?
Anticipated Research Outcomes
- Identify climate adapted crop and forage varieties suitable for future Irish climate conditions.
- Development of NFS production models to assess the effect of climate change on farm profitability.
- Identify changes required to improve economic and environmental sustainability under a range of climate scenarios.
- International collaborations with regions of similar climate and compare modelling data with Irish drought and rainfall simulations.
- Early measures developed for Irish agricultural systems in preparation for extreme weather events.
Elodie Ruelle
Adaptation Pillar Lead
Research Snapshots
Future Weather & Adaptation of Farming Practices
Using data from the Met Éireann TRANSLATE project, grass growth modelling aims to predict the impact of climate change on Irish grass growth. The findings suggest that while total annual grass growth is expected to increase, most of this growth will occur in winter and spring. In contrast, grass growth during the summer — especially in the eastern half of the country — is likely to decline. Similar research is ongoing in relation to future crop growth.
These models help us prepare for the challenges ahead and identify ways to make Irish farming more resilient. For instance, farms may need to upgrade grazing infrastructure to allow earlier access to paddocks, increase silage and forage reserves to cope with summer droughts, or consider planting more diverse or drought-resistant grass varieties to adapt to changing conditions.
In terms of crops, there is a forecasted increase in the propagation of pest and diseases. Research is ongoing to predict the best timing of insecticide spraying in the current climate, as well as predict the aphid and virus pressure in future climate.
Presentation by Dr Elodie Ruelle, Pillar Lead, at the Signpost General Assembly in November 2024. Paper: Future Weather and Adaptation of Farming Practices (PDF)
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