Looking into a crystal ball for harvest 2023

As the growing season on Irish tillage farms comes to an abrupt end, Tom Tierney’s crops are no different to others in that the Irish weather has had a significant part to play.
In this article, the Teagasc Signpost Programme tillage farmer looks forward to the upcoming harvest, details crop performance and discusses the topic of farm succession planning.
A late and wet spring, followed by five plus weeks of drought, leaves us wondering how we can build resilience into farming operations going forward.
Winter oilseed rape
My decision to keep the struggling winter oilseed rape crop was definitely justified in preference to a late-sown crop of spring barley in drought conditions. The green leaf area (GAI App) crop management assessment tool was very useful in managing this crop and making key management decisions.
Costs were kept to a minimum to preserve a margin with a total of 90kg N/ha applied. To provoke a bit of discussion amongst readers, I reckon that a seeding rate of 3kg/ha (50 seeds/m2) in a direct drilling system is too light for the last week in August. The question I am asking my advisor is should I be mixing hybrid and conventional varieties and increasing the seed rate to 5kg/ha? Word of warning - watch this year’s oilseed rape stubbles for slugs given the humid conditions.
Winter wheat
My crop of Graham winter wheat defies logic, as some of my farming colleagues/advisors are wondering could my IPM and biological approach be replicated around the country. A combined total nitrogen of foliar and granular leaves this crop standing on 115kg N/ha, with zero fungicides up to June 15th.
Biological stimulants and trace elements were used at the standard T1 and T2 timings. The crop also received no growth regulation, as Pacifica was applied to control grass weeds such as bromes and wild oats. With the onset of a wet weather pattern, Prosario fungicide was used on the head together with the planned bio-stimulants.
Farm succession
Like numerous other Irish farmers, farm succession is a topic that I am looking to explore with my daughter Erin. She awaits a decision from Teagasc on admission to a Level 5/6 part-time agricultural course that she can complete alongside her nursing career in intellectual disabilities. Erin has a long-term ambition to develop a ‘social farm’ on the family tillage farm, which can be used by people who require a social support service.
Grain markets
Lastly, where will the grain markets be for the harvest of 2023 as current grain prices are €35/t away from a break-even scenario on owned land? Current grain prices leaves those on con acre pondering on the future of a high input tillage system, particularly given the European Union’s decision to level subsidy payments by 2028.
Tom Tierney is enrolled in the Teagasc Signpost Programme. More information on the programme is available here. For more details on Tom's farm, click here. This article first appeared in the Farming Independent.