Situation and Outlook for Irish Agriculture - April 2022
In December of 2021 we published the annual Situation and Outlook for 2022. In the short period since then the outlook for 2022 has changed considerably due to the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and the war that has resulted.
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The revision of our outlook begins with a summary of the current economic situation. The important role that Ukraine and Russia play in grain and oilseed export markets is then considered. This is followed by a review of input market developments and prospects. Finally, there is an assessment of the likely performance of the main farm systems in 2022.
In this publication the situation and outlook is summarised. For each commodity sector, production, consumption, output price, input market developments and income are assessed and are then given either a positive, neutral or a negative ranking.
This exceptional analytic exercise is carried out in respect of the current Situation, representing the first quarter of f 2022, and the Outlook representing the three remaining quarters of 2022. The categorisation is performed with respect to the farmer’s perspective on the impact of market price, supply and demand developments on farm profitability.
Uncertainty always features when looking at the future. The current situation in agricultural commodity and input markets is evolving. From an agricultural perspective what happens next depends to a degree on what happens in the war in Ukraine and how governments and other stakeholders around the world react to supply and demand conditions in commodity markets.
As with every year, the other big unknown is weather conditions for the growing season, both here in Ireland and internationally. Weather that is favourable for global production could offset some of the anticipated production shortfall resulting from the invasion of Ukraine and a poor year for global production would exacerbate the shortfall.
Consequently, it will be necessary to revisit this Outlook in the next few months as circumstances evolve.