Modelling Irish Agricultural GHG Emissions and Mitigation to 2050: Scenarios for the Carbon Budgets Working Group
Type Report
Teagasc contributed to the carbon budget analysis conducted by the Carbon Budget Working Group (CBWG) of the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) in 2023 and 2024. This contribution was made under the Memorandum of Understanding between the CCAC and all relevant Government Departments and State Agencies.
Teagasc was also a member of the CCAC’s CBWG. The CBWG was charged with providing an evidence base, including modelling and analytical support, for the CCAC to assist it in developing its second programme of carbon budgets. The CCAC’s Carbon Budget Proposal to Government was then published on December 12th 2024. The CCAC’s Carbon Budget Proposal to Government is available on the CCAC’s website.
The principal contribution of Teagasc to the CBWG made use of the Teagasc FAPRI-Ireland partial equilibrium model of the Irish agricultural economy and the latest Teagasc GHG Marginal Abatement Costs Curve (MACC) (Lanigan et al., 2023). This capacity was used to undertake scenario analysis, assessing possible future levels of GHG emissions from Irish agriculture over the period to 2050.
Papers prepared from various organisations and individuals who were members of the CBWG (including Teagasc) are also now available on the CCAC website. These papers informed the work of the CCAC in preparing its latest Carbon Budget Proposal. Within this set of papers, the agricultural paper was prepared by Teagasc and is titled Modelling Irish Agricultural GHG Emissions and Mitigation to 2050: Scenarios for the Carbon Budgets Working Group (CBWG). It is available here.
In brief Teagasc were requested by the CCAC CBWG to model a number of scenarios to 2050, including a business as usual – no policy change - scenario, as well as scenarios with lower and higher animal numbers and activity levels. For each of these scenarios two MACC measure adoption pathways were projected.
Specifically, the Teagasc analysis used the modified Teagasc FAPRI-Ireland model to generate three agricultural activity scenarios for the period to 2050.
- Scenario 1 (S1) a base case projection of agricultural activity levels
- Scenario 2 (S2) a lower projected level of agricultural activity relative to S1
- Scenario 3 (S3) a higher projected level of agricultural activity relative to S1
The projected level of agricultural GHG emissions under these three scenarios, in the absence of technical measures to reduce such emissions, were then determined. The Teagasc GHG MACC was then used to assess the amount of agriculture GHG emissions that could be mitigated using technical measures under each of these three agricultural activity scenarios.
In order to do this, two technology adoption pathways, based on differing levels of mitigation technology adoption, were investigated.
- Pathway 1 (P1) where an ambitious rate of technology adoption is assumed in line with the highest rate of adoption in the 2023 Teagasc MACC
- Pathway 2 (P2) where a very ambitious rate of technology adoption is assumed
This then resulted in 6 mitigation scenarios - 3 activity scenarios X 2 mitigation pathways.
GHG emissions from agriculture are in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide. Collectively such emissions are expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents, a measure which factors in the differing warming potentials of each of these three gases expressed as GWP100. The reductions in each individual greenhouse gas were also provided to the CCAC CBWG to enable the warming impact analysis to be modelled.
The summary results of the Teagasc analysis undertaken within the CBWG were as follows:
- For the three gases in aggregate the mitigation potential in carbon dioxide equivalents by 2050 relative to 2018 ranged from 15% to 48% across the scenarios explored.
- The research also reported on the impact on emissions of these gases individually. Across the scenarios, the reduction in methane ranged from 7% to 42% and the reduction in nitrous oxide ranged from 49% to 77%.
The largest reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of 48% was modelled under Scenario 2 (lower agricultural activity) combined with Pathway 2 (very ambitious rate of mitigation technology adoption) which delivered a 42% and 77% reduction in methane and nitrous oxide gases respectively.
Scenario 2 (lower agricultural activity) was based on assuming much less favourable economic prospects for dairy and beef production, which resulted in a projection of lower animal numbers. This scenario is not a forecast of anticipated animal numbers. The CCAC requested Teagasc to model such a scenario to demonstrate the effect that lower animal numbers would have on emission levels. No policy (or other) mechanisms to reduce animal numbers and activity levels are proposed in the Teagasc analysis. It is possible that different combinations of agricultural activity levels, to those projected under Scenario 2, could deliver equivalent reductions in agricultural GHG emissions. Scenario 2 illustrates the role that reduced levels of agricultural activity, together with MACC measure adoption, could play in reducing agricultural GHG emissions.
The results of this research continue to underline that the 2030 GHG emission reduction target of 25% for the agricultural sector is very challenging and that the adoption of the measures in the Teagasc MACC are critical to achieving such a target. There remains an urgent need for incentives and policies to support the MACC implementation to 2030 and beyond. Further investment is needed in research to develop and test technologies to reduce emissions and provide viable options for farm diversification.
Links
Link to the Teagasc report: Modelling Irish Agricultural GHG Emissions and Mitigation to 2050: Scenarios for the Carbon Budgets Working Group